May 4, 2026
Results from delivering CVITP service to clients
Individuals assisted
2025 – What happened?
The number of individuals assisted once again reached a new peak in the 2025 filing season. The growth rate has declined each year since the 2021 season, but the trend remains above the pre-COVID period.
2026 – What will happen?
The grant pilot project may have helped kickstart the CVITP after 2020. Given that it has now been renewed for the next three years, it may help to maintain this higher growth rate. In 2026, I expect to see the growth rate remain above those seen during the 2016-2019 period prior to COVID but to decline below the 8.07% growth rate seen in 2025 due to increasing capacity constraints within existing host organizations.
2027 and beyond
The CRA’s introduction of automatic tax filing in 2027 and 2028 could reduce the demand for and hence the growth rate of CVITP services. However, CVITP services may still be needed to help recipients of pre-filled returns understand what the CRA has prepared for them. If individuals seek out the advice of CVITP volunteers but then choose to use the automatic return process, the CVITP volunteer’s support will not be reflected in the CRA’s numbers.
Returns filed
2025 – What happened?
The number of returns filed once again reached a new peak in the 2025 filing season. The growth rate has declined each year since the 2021 season, but the trend remains above the pre-COVID period. Consistently for the past three years, the number of returns filed represent 15% more than the number of individuals assisted.
2026 – What will happen?
The grant pilot project may have helped kickstart the CVITP after 2020. Given that it has now been renewed for the next three years, it may help to maintain this higher growth rate. In 2026, I expect to see the growth rate remain above those seen during the 2016-2019 period prior to COVID but to decline below the 8.84% growth rate seen in 2025 due to increasing capacity constraints within existing host organizations.
2027 and beyond
The CRA’s introduction of automatic tax filing in 2027 and 2028 could reduce the demand for filing current year returns. At this stage, the CRA has said nothing about undertaking automatic tax filing for prior year returns. Thus, we could see a rise in the proportion of prior year returns being filed (i.e. above the average of 1.15 returns filed per individual assisted) at least in the introductory years of automatic tax filing.
Value generated
2025 – What happened?
The real value of the benefits, credits and refunds generated declined every year since 2019. As this phenomenon pre-figures the end of the Canada Carbon Rebate in 2025, it can be attributed to federal and provincial benefits not keeping pace with inflation.
2026 – What will happen?
Hopefully the replacement of the GST Credit with the more generous Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit will go someway toward arresting the decline in the real value generated. However, this benefit alone is unlikely to fully arrest the decline. This will have to come from a joint effort to increase the real value of other benefits.
Infrastructure supporting CVITP service delivery
Host organizations
2025 – What happened?
The number of host organizations grew by 2% in 2025 but remained below the peak reached in 2020, at the onset of COVID. This was the final year of the pilot grant program which was designed but failed to increase the number of host organizations by 5% annually.
2026 – What will happen?
The CRA announced the three years of grant funding (2026 to 2028 inclusive) for host organizations very late in the planning period for the 2026 tax season. Additionally, the financing formula remains less generous than in the middle years of the pilot grant project. Given that these unfavourable conditions, it is unlikely that the number will increase significantly more in the 2026 tax season. It would take some other, unknown factor to stimulate an increase well above this low growth trend.
Volunteers
2025 – What happened?
The number of volunteers grew by 10% in 2025 and, for the first time, the peak previously reached in 2019 was surpassed. Nevertheless, it represents a decline in growth from 2024, which experienced a 13% increase in the number of volunteers.
2026 – What will happen?
It is too early to say with assurance that the decline in growth in 2025 as compared with 2024 represents a trend. But there are two reasons to suspect that the number of volunteers will grow more slowly in 2026. First, the number of host organizations, which represent the main source of volunteers, is likely to grow weakly, at best. Second, broader trends in volunteerism in Canada suggest that the CVITP will struggle to significantly grow its volunteer base.
Volunteers at host organizations
2025 – What happened?
The average number of volunteers per host organization has risen steadily since 2022 but at 4.5 in 2025, it remains below the peak of 4.7 reached in 2017.
2026 – What will happen?
The average number of volunteers per host organization is likely to grow further, albeit modestly. While I expect the growth in the number of volunteers to moderate further in 2026, the growth in the number of host organizations in 2026 will remain well below that of volunteers.
CVITP service productivity
Volunteers
2025 – What happened?
Volunteer productivity declined for the second year in a row but remained well above levels seen prior to COVID.
2026 – What will happen?
While volunteer productivity will continue to remain well above the pre-COVID period, it may decline modestly in 2026 if the volunteer growth rate continues to outpace the growth in the numbers of individuals assisted and of returns filed as it has these last two years.
Host organizations
2025 – What happened?
Host organization productivity has trended consistently upward since COVID and reached a new peak in 2025.
2026 – What will happen?
Host organization productivity may continue to rise further but at a slower rate than has been the case throughout the 2021-2025 period. I still believe we are close to reaching the capacity limits within the existing corps of host organizations. Unless they further expand their client eligibility requirements, volunteers or physical resources (e.g. office space, computers, printers) – and there are few incentives to do so – host organization productivity cannot grow indefinitely and must eventually stall.