This is the first article in a three-part series.  This article argues that, while the number of current non-filers may not be as large as some popular estimates, the number is still very large and represents a serious drag on the federal government’s poverty reduction objectives.

Robson and Schwartz estimate 10-12% of Canadian residents eligible to file a return failed to do so in 2015.  While this estimate continues to circulate in the media today, other estimates suggest the non-filer rate has fallen significantly since then.  Using one of the more intuitive methods employed by Robson and Schwarz, we estimate that the non-filer rate had dropped to around 4.8% by 2021.  However, this still means that approximately 1.5 million Canadian residents eligible to file a return failed to do so in 2021.  As most of these were low-income residents, many missed claiming federal and provincial or territorial income-tested benefits designed to reduce poverty.  Getting these residents to file a return will be key to meeting the federal government’s objectives laid out in its 2018 Poverty Reduction Strategy.

The next two articles will propose elements of a strategy whereby the CRA could make more effective use of the CVITP to reduce the number of non-filers, making an important contribution to poverty reduction.